Our study rejects the explanatory value of the monetarist view, but also criticizes the Kindleberger-Minsky model for not taking the legalisation and the sanctions in the hands of the authorities into account. We consider the institutional factor as a decisive part in the understanding of systemic risk and the process towards increasing debt in non-financial sectors and introduce the concept institutional clash. Not every recession has caused a banking crisis.
But all banking crises have been preceded by an institutional clash. Consequently, an institutional clash is a prerequisite but not sufficient to cause a banking crisis: there must be a recession for a crisis to emerge. We also launch a stage-model for the evolution of banking crises. The stages in that model highlight decisive factors before, under and after a crisis.
Our model has the capability to explain the occurrence of crises in a re-regulated economy. However, we only give few examples from Nordic banking crises how our model could be applied. Thus, the article is explorative. It is natural to make further empirical observation in order get a solid theory of driving forces behind banking crisis. The next step would be to empirically integrate all the Nordic banking crises between and in our analysis. Caprio, C. Dow, J , "What is Systemic Risk?
Eichengreen, B. Friedman, M. Hove, S. A History of Financial Crises, London second edition. Knutsen, S. Ecklund : Vern mot kriser? Insolvency typically leads to a bankruptcy process and, at least, to creditors not being paid in full. Governments do not usually regulate the funding mix of corporations; most corporations can borrow as much as they want if they can find lenders. The terms of loans are set through negotiations with lenders in private or public markets for corporate debt securities.
Corporations may be able to save on their taxes by borrowing, since many governments, including the U. Despite this tax advantage, it is rare for healthy corporations outside banking to fund less than 30 percent of their assets by equity, and many thriving corporations borrow little. Retained profits are often the favored source of funding that requires no new issuance of securities to investors.
Private Equity and Financial Fragility During the Crisis
Heavy borrowing has a dark side. Second, it intensifies the fundamental conflicts of interest between borrowers shareholders in the case of a corporation and lenders regarding investment and funding decisions. The conflicts arise because borrowers benefit fully from the upside of any risk taken while sharing the downside risk with lenders. The decisions made by the managers and shareholders of an indebted corporation may harm creditors and, moreover, they may be inefficient by reducing the combined value of the firm to all investors.
Specifically, once debt is in place, corporate decisions are generally biased in favor of additional borrowing and riskier investments and against reducing indebtedness or making worthy investments that lack sufficient upside. Anticipating the possibility of default, bankruptcy and inefficient investments that harm their interest, creditors protect themselves by requiring higher interest and by placing conditions in the debt contracts. Distressed corporations therefore find it difficult to fund additional investments under favorable terms. Moreover, it is costly to write and enforce debt contracts that prevent excessive borrowing and risk taking, particularly when creditors are fragmented without restricting worthy investments that may benefit all investors.
The funding mix of banks is starkly different from other companies, consisting almost entirely of debt and very little equity.
Debt, financial fragility, and systemic risk - E. P. Davis - Google книги
Even with equity of as little as 3 percent or less relative to their assets and with problematic measurements that might make the actual indebtedness even heavier , banks seek to make payouts to their shareholders and maintain extremely high indebtedness and borrow to fund more investment. Because banks have little equity and much of their debt consists of deposits and short-term loans that can be withdrawn quickly, even small losses can cause default or insolvency.
If depositors or other lenders become concerned about potential default and lose their trust, they may withdraw their funding, possibly in a panic to ensure they are paid before others. Having more equity would reduce the risk of banks running into solvency.
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Pure liquidity problems that arise because assets cannot easily be converted to cash do not usually cause defaults in banking because central banks stand ready to lend to banks to prevent their defaults. Deposits and short-term loans benefit from their ability to easily convert to cash. The need for regulation is even stronger when there is collateral harm to the system or the economy from individual institutions, or many at the same time, becoming distressed or insolvent and possibly defaulting.
Since depositors are passive and their claims not backed by collateral, banks will continue to borrow and take risk even if they are insolvent, unless they are stopped by regulators. Such arrangements receive preferential treatment under current bankruptcy laws, making them ever more attractive. Rather than improve outcomes for society, however, these strategies exploit and endanger existing creditors and taxpayers. Political economy, confusion and willful blindness are key to understanding why the financial sector is able to maintain its privileges and prevent beneficial regulations.
Symbiotic relations between banks and governments create many forms of capture Admati, Those who benefit from the status quo are able to muddle the debate with misleading narratives. Prior to the expansion of safety nets for banking in the form of central banks, deposit insurance, and implicit guarantees , banks maintained much higher equity levels than they have in recent years.
Equity levels of 20 or 30 percent of total assets were common early in the 20 th century, and in the U. As safety nets expanded, depositors and other creditors were less concerned and bank shareholders and managers chose to have much less equity and were able to do so without regulations to counter the incentives. The financial system has become more complex and opaque in recent decades, as well as larger relative to the economy in many developed economies. The growth of securitization and derivatives markets enabled more risk sharing, but it also allowed institutions to take more risks and obscure them from stakeholders.
Not only were the regulations inadequate, their poor design introduced distortions that increased the fragility of the system and exacerbated the problems. For example, institutions incurred massive losses from investments that regulators had considered perfectly safe. After the crisis, regulators sought reforms, but they failed to learn the full lessons and proceeded to maintain the overall approach, thus continuing to tolerate a distorted and fragile system.
For example, one thorny issue is measurements of indebtedness, particularly in the context of complex derivatives and off-balance-sheet commitments.
Accounting-based measures and the use of risk weights in an attempt to calibrate requirements to risk have made regulatory measures quite uninformative for indicating the true strength of any institution. Admati and Hellwig a, Chapter 11 and Admati summarize the problems with the regulations and propose improvements as well as transition to a better system. Twenty prominent economists Admati et al, , for example, recommended at least fifteen percent, as compared to the 3 percent, in equity relative to total assets required by the Basel III international accord.
With more equity, banks would be in a better position to serve the economy even after incurring losses without needing support. They will also be less likely to experience liquidity problems and runs. Better yet, by reducing the intensity of the conflict of interest between banks managers and shareholders on one hand, and their lenders and taxpayers on the other, banks with more equity suffer from fewer distortions in lending decisions, including excessive and inefficient risk-taking and underinvestment in some worthy loans.
The easiest way to implement the transition to higher equity requirements is to ban payments to equity until banks are better capitalized, and even requiring that some executive compensation come in the form of new shares rather than cash. It may also be useful for regulators to mandate minimum amounts of new equity issuance each year, with banks that cannot raise equity being viewed as failing a market-based stress test. Any institution that is too opaque, insolvent, or too big and inefficient to do so should not persist.
Instead of relying on market tests, regulators use so-called stress tests to reassure themselves and the public that the banks are safe enough.
Debt, Financial Fragility, and Systemic Risk
These tests set inadequate benchmarks for passing and are based on many strong assumptions. Moreover, they are unable to predict the market dynamics of the interconnected system in an actual crisis, which may come from an unexpected direction.
As a result, they give false reassurances. This approach is flawed in many ways. First, it focuses on treatment of an outbreak in the financial system, when additional equity would act as an obvious preventative measure, reducing the likelihood of failure. Indeed, in a crisis when many institutions are failing or near failure, the collateral harm of any process of dealing with the problem would be substantial. Equity is the simplest, most reliable and most beneficial way to reduce those subsidies while also enhancing the health and safety of the system.
Shareholders who are entitled to the upside and who absorb losses without the need to go through complex and costly triggers, are the most obvious candidates to bear the risk. Suggestions that the largest institutions should be broken up by authorities fail to recognize that the size, complexity and recklessness of these institutions are symptom of failed markets and regulations.
More equity would be useful because, in addition to reducing the likelihood of costly failure, it is likely, if done properly, to bring more market pressure from equity investors to cause the largest institutions to break up naturally, similar to how large conglomerates broke up in the s and s. Moreover, as seen in the Savings and Loan crisis of the s and in many other banking crises, the failure of many small banks can cause as much disruption and harm, and may lead to bailouts.
Thus, a system with many small but excessively fragile institutions taking similar risks and likely to fail at the same time can present preventable problems. It is also important to change two sets of counterproductive laws that make the financial system more fragile, and safety regulations in banking harder, by creating a wider gap between what is good for banks and their managers and what is best for society.
First, the tax code must be changed to neutralize the advantage of debt over equity funding. Even if banks pay more taxes, this does not represent a cost to society because taxes are used by governments on behalf of the public. The tax effect can also be balanced to have little effect on the taxes banks pay but in a way that does not reward excessive borrowing. Whereas such subsidies are said to support home ownership, they reward only borrowing to buy houses, thus increasing the fragility of households and of the economy to the harm from excessive use of debt Mian and Sufi, If home ownership is a policy objective, there are better ways to encourage it, such as providing tax credits towards the down payment the equity portion in buying a house.
In addition to the counterproductive tax code that encourages borrowing over equity funding, bankruptcy laws established decades ago, and revised in , exempt certain repo and derivatives contracts from the normal rules governing creditor behavior in bankruptcy. It further provides special privileges to certain stakeholders, typically other financial institutions, over other lenders.
Despite these problems, the counterproductive law has not changed. Large banks also continue to be very opaque. These effects breed lawlessness by individuals whose compensation rewards gambling and law evasion, and who rarely pay a personal price when they harm stakeholders and the public. Yet implicit subsidies appear to allow the banking sector as a whole, and particularly the largest institutions, to obtain privileged funding that do not fully reflect the risk they take and to remain profitable despite repeated scandals and fines.
The persistent failure to ensure financial stability and the muddled debate about the costs and benefits associated with higher equity are rooted in a mix of confusion and distorted incentives across the individuals in the private sector as well as in government. The situation has prevented engagement on the issues and enabled flawed claims to prevail, starting with an insidious confusion about jargon and continuing with subtly misleading claims or assertions based on inappropriate assumptions.
This confusion immediately raises imaginary tradeoffs between lending and equity capital, allowing lobbyists to get away with nonsensical claims e. In fact, with more equity banks are better able to make worthy loans at appropriate prices and do so more consistently. Admati and Hellwig list 31 distinct flawed claims made in the discussion and provide a brief debunking.
Admati , a describes the actions and the incentives of the many enablers of this situation and thus the dangerous system, including individuals in the private sector, policy, media and academia. Banking scholars are among the enablers when they build models based on the presumption that markets create efficient outcomes while ignoring critical governance issues and market failures e.
Among the misleading narratives about financial crises is that they are akin to natural disasters and thus unpreventable.
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This narrative directs discussion to disaster preparation, akin to sending ambulances to the scene of an accident, rather than to prevention. Enablers also misleadingly use the past failure of regulation that resulted in the growth of the so-called shadow banking system as an argument against regulations. Worse, where simple and cost-effective regulations can help counter distorted incentives, regulators have instead devised extremely complex regulations some of which may not bring enough benefit to justify the costs but which allow the pretense of action.
Just as we should not allow pollution even if another nation foolishly tolerates it, subsidizing recklessness in banking to help banks succeed while endangering our citizens and others is bad policy.